California Institute -- 10/96 Op-ed

California Could Rule the 105th Congress

Tuesday, October 8, 1996

By Tim Ransdell

With Congress finally leaving town, thoughts in the halls of Congress are turning to November, and then to next January. Which party will control the House? Which the Senate? Whichever party holds the gavel, how will committee and subcommittee chairs shift?

The California delegation too has its own questions.

If the Democrats were to take control, would the prospective chairs of committees (George Miller on Resources, Ron Dellums on Armed Services, George Brown on Science) and key subcommittees (Henry Waxman on Health & the Environment, Bob Matsui on Trade, Vic Fazio and Nancy Pelosi on Appropriations panels) wield clout for the state? Would Howard Berman replace Carlos Moorhead at the helm of the intellectual property panel so critical to the state's entertainment and software industries? How will California fare in the renewal of highway programs without Norm Mineta steering the Transportation Committee?

If the Democrats retook the Senate, how would California's stock in that chamber rise? Dianne Feinstein's Appropriations Committee seat was eliminated in the Congress -- could she rejoin the key money panel in a shifted Senate? How might things change if Republicans retain the Senate?

And if the Republicans retain the House, will David Dreier continue to be a key leader? Will retirements let Richard Pombo lead a key Agriculture panel? How can California's current subcommittee chairs further strengthen their key positions?

The broad question preceding most of these specifics is "Who will control the House?" To many, this boils down simply to "which party." But recent polls and predictions suggest that the 105th Congress may have yet more facets.

As the election draws nearer, there is the very real prospect that there will be an even narrower margin of majority than there is now. Whether it is the Democrats or Republicans who hold a numerical superiority in the House, the number of votes between the two parties may be at its closest level in 44 years. Majorities have ranged from just 10 seats in the early 1950s, up to 150 seats in the mid-1960s and again in mid-1970s, and now down to 35 seats today. If the polls are right, the House margin could be even smaller in January.

The prospect of a razor-thin margin opens up the possibility of factional rule in the House, of shrewd coalition-builders shaping just as many policies as the official party leaders.

Among states, California is the best positioned to take advantage of such a turn of events. With a whopping 52 votes, California's clout in the House grows as the margin of majority shrinks. The state's House delegation could be a driving force in the 105th Congress, whether the Speaker's party sits on the right or left side of the chamber.

With its unprecedented even split of House Members -- 26 Republicans and 26 Democrats -- the current California delegation already knows the value of bipartisan cooperation. The state teamed up for a range of victories in the 104th Congress.

The National Ignition Facility will be built at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory. The Alameda Corridor transportation project in Southern California won some hard-fought battles, and $59 million in the C.R. for loan guarantees will leverage into much more. The Pentagon's orders for additional C-17 cargo jets will boost L.A.'s rebounding economy. The federal government now reimburses states for the costs of incarcerating illegal immigrant felons, and California receives about half of that annual $500 million. The research & development tax credit was finally reinstated, with an alternative base calculation to allow more key California companies to use it. NASA projects & policies continue receive bipartisan support from the state's delegation: the X-33 reusable launch vehicle will be built by a California aerospace team; the space station won handily this year after just squeaking by in prior years; and an array of other NASA programs are widely backed.

A number of concerns remain "works-in-progress." It will be some time before we know how the various reductions in services to legal immigrants that were contained in the welfare bill will impact the state. Some say many will become citizens and more will enter the working world; others say it will be devastating, with thousands out on the street and county budgets strained to the breaking point. All we can say with conviction is that, with 40% of the nation's immigrants, California will feel the results more than any other state.

And when Congress abandoned efforts to make Medicaid a block grant in the final welfare reform package, it was in part because of California's formula concerns. While the original House proposal would have raised the state's share from it's current 9% of funding, a number of subsequent proposals would have imposed "per capita caps," thereby penalizing California for past efficiency and setting in concrete the current disparate scheme which gives New York $6,000 in Medicaid funds per patient, and California $2,000 per patient. Of course, with an annual price tag of nearly $100 billion for the federal share alone, Medicaid is likely to be discussed again, perhaps early in the 105th Congress.

Even the effort to hold back base closures -- unsuccessful as it may have been -- shows how well the Congressional delegation works toward common goals when warranted.

A number of issues important to California moved forward recently, and, while they may not have reached the finish line, this year's progress lays the groundwork for future success. Highway funding hearings laid the foundation for major legislation next year. Natural disaster insurance legislation, FDA reforms, and intellectual property protections were all considered seriously and, could be taken up early in the 105th Congress.

The California Congressional delegation could play a key role in whether and how these and other key issues are treated. By keeping focused on the state's needs, our 52 Members could be one of the loudest voices in the House. The narrower the majority's margin, the greater the clout for the Golden State.

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Ransdell is executive director of the California Institute for Federal Policy Research, a bipartisan, Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit organization, which advises the California congressional delegation on issues of economic concern to the state.