State Population Projections Released -- May 20, 2004 -- California Capitol Hill Bulletin -- Volume 11, Bulletin 17

Though California's population will grow slower than previously expected over the next several decades, it is expected to increase by 20 million people by year 2050, up to 54.8 million from the current mark of 34 million, according to new projections released by the state. The California Department of Finance population forecast was based on data gathered during the 2000 Census, as well as birth and death records, county building plans, and migration patterns into and out of the state.

The report estimates that the state's ethnic makeup will evolve as well, with Latinos constituting a majority by 2038 and comprising 53.6 percent of the total population by 2050. By the same token, whites are projected to account for 23.3 percent, Asians 12.1 percent, blacks 6.4 percent, and American Indians and multiracial people 2.21 percent each in 2050. The report also contains population estimates of 50-year trends for individual California counties. Los Angeles will remain the biggest county in the state with 11 million residents by 2050, which roughly translates into one in five Californians. On the other hand, Riverside County is expected to add the most residents by 2050 with 2.8 million new residents and become the third largest county in the state behind Los Angeles and San Diego. While Riverside County is projected to expand the fastest numerically, San Joaquin County is projected to achieve the highest percentage gain with a 201 percent increase expected by 2050.

The report found that seven counties - Inyo, Marin, Modoc, Plumas, San Francisco, Siskyou, and Trinity - are projected to actually see a decrease of their populations due mostly to natural decreases. In addition, the new projections indicate that Sierra County will have the highest percentage of Caucasians of any county, and Imperial County will have the highest percentage of Hispanics. San Francisco City and County will have the highest concentration of Asians, San Mateo County will have the highest percentage of Pacific Islanders, Sacramento County will have the largest proportion of African Americans, and Alpine County will have the highest percentage of Native Americans. Californians identifying themselves as being multi-racial are expected to have the highest concentration in Inyo County.

To obtain the full copy of this forecast, please visit the California Department of Finance website at: http://www.dof.ca.gov/HTML/DEMOGRAP/whatsnew.htm .

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