New Study Predicts Job Growth for Southern California in 2004 -- February 13, 2004 -- California Capitol Hill Bulletin -- Volume 11, Bulletin 5

Southern California's economy will pick up steam in 2004, creating jobs at a faster rate than the rest of the state and the nation, reports a new study released on February 9, 2004 by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC). The report, titled "2004-2005 Economic Forecast and Industry Outlook for California & the Los Angeles Five-County Area Including the National & International Setting," also makes a prediction that the U.S. economy will expand as well, growing by 4 percent in 2004 and 3.6 percent in 2005, with consumer spending contributing healthily to such an economic upturn.

The report names the aerospace, technology, and tourism industries among those with improving economic prospects in 2004, while it identifies health services and motion picture/TV production among those that will continue to experience significant challenges. The report notes that the value of exports moving through the Los Angeles area will most likely increase to $259 billion, up 10 percent, in 2004. On the other hand, health services is being held at a poor forecast rating for 2004 due to a variety of forces including: a double digit rise in health care cost rates, an ongoing struggle on behalf of hospitals to comply with nursing staffing laws, and closure of smaller hospitals.

The forecast also predicts that in terms of percentage job growth for nonfarm jobs in 2004, the Riverside-San Bernardino area will experience a 2.4 percent (or 25,600 jobs) increase. Orange County is predicted to gain 1.6 percent (or 22,200), while San Diego County will see a 1.2% increase (or 14,600). Los Angeles County's nonfarm employment will move up by 0.8 percent (31,300), while Ventura County will see a 0.3 percent slippage (or 700). In addition, other measures of regional economic growth, such as personal income, and taxable sales, are also projected to advance at a healthy rate.

The report's predictions, which estimate that Southern California's economy will grow at 1.14 percent in 2004, place the five-county region's economic upward movement ahead of state and national economic indicators. The LAEDC report concludes that there are emerging industries in which the state and the region under consideration could be major players, and recommends that elected and business leaders should develop an encompassing vision that would energize overall population and various segments of the business community in light of upcoming changes.

To obtain a copy of this report, please visit the LAEDC website at: http://www.laedc.org .

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